美国次贷危机救助政策有效性研究——基于金融与贸易传导的双重视角

Research on the Effectiveness of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis Rescue Policies——Based on the Dual Perspective of Financial and Trade Transmission

由次贷危机引发的金融危机爆发后,美国因采用合理救助政策而快速复苏,对于金融危机救助政策的有效性研究具有长期的理论意义和战略需要。危机救助不仅仅作用于金融本身,贸易也是发挥救助作用的重要渠道。故而,本文从美国次贷危机救助政策及其传导机制入手,梳理了美国次贷危机救助手段,更将次贷危机救助政策的传导渠道分为金融渠道和贸易渠道分别进行研究。笔者采用VAR模型,以2008～2018年间的月度美国国债利率、M2、财政支出、道琼斯指数、汇率、进出口量以及工业增加值等数据作为样本,研究其救助政策传递渠道及其有效性。结果表明,货币政策能够通过金融与贸易双向渠道发挥作用,且价格型货币政策工具效果更快显现;同时,财政政策由前期贸易情况决定,并且仅能通过贸易渠道发挥救助作用,两种救助政策具有长期影响。鉴于美国使用上述政策的效果,笔者认为我国在应对金融危机时应当建立研究框架,采用大数据等手段支持金融压力指数等实时检测指标,合理救助,明确部门分工,以便危机爆发时有完善的事前、事中、事后应对机制。

After the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States has rapidly re. covered due to the adoption of reasonable rescue policies. The research on the effectiveness of financial crisis rescue policies has long-term theoretical significance and strategic needs. Crisis rescue not only acts on finance itself, but trade is also an important channel for the role of relief. Therefore, this paper starts with the US subprime mortgage crisis rescue policies and their transmission mechanism, sorts out the means of subprime mortgage crisis rescue in the United States, and divides the transmission channels of the subprime mortgage crisis rescue policies into finan. cial channels and trade channels. The author applies the VAR model, and uses the monthly US government bond in. terest rate, M2, fiscal expenditure, Dow Jones index, exchange rate, import and export volume, and industrial added value from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to study the transmission channels and effectiveness of the rescue policies. The results show that monetary policy can play a role through the two-way channels of finance and trade, and the effect of price-based monetary policy tools is more obvious. At the same time, fiscal policy is determined by the pre-trade sit. uation, and can only play a role in rescue through trade channels, these two rescue policies have long-term effects. In view of the effect of the above policies in the United States, the author believes that China should establish a re. search framework in response to the financial crisis, use big data and other means to support real-time detection in. dicators such as financial stress index, take reasonable assistance and clarify labor division of different departments in order to build a perfect pre-, inter-, and post-response mechanism when the crisis erupts.