基于干旱风险的甘肃省小麦保险费率厘定研究

Study on the wheat insurance rate premium in Gansu Province based on drought risk

甘肃省位于西北内陆,其农作物种植面临最大的风险就是旱灾风险,根据不同区域风险特征、量化风险、差异化厘定费率能实现对甘肃省旱灾风险的管理.基于甘肃省13市(州)1986—2016年小麦单产数据(剔除嘉峪关市数据),利用经验费率法计算不同保障水平下的纯费率,并根据4个干旱指标和4个抗旱指标对纯费率进行修正.省域内干旱风险自西向东大致呈递增状态,由此造成相同保障水平下费率的变动,最终确定甘肃省市级小麦保险费率.基于干旱风险水平差异化厘定费率适用于西北地区风险状况,且有效降低了统一费率下道德风险、逆向选择风险,以及为个人缴费水平与承灾能力不匹配、地区间财政保费补贴错配提供解决问题的方向.

The biggest risk to crops in northwest China's inland Gansu province is drought. The risk characteristics, quantitative risk and differential rate making of different regions can realize the management of drought risk in Gansu province. Based on 13 cities in Gansu province in 1986-2016 wheat yield data, we use the experience of rate method to calculate the pure rate under different security level, and according to the four drought index and five drought-resistant indexes on pure rate. Drought risk in Gansu province is increasing from west to east, leading to different rates at the same guarantee level, and finally determining wheat insurance rates at various municipal levels in Gansu province. Based on the differential rate of drought risk level, it is applicable to the risk situation in northwest China. Moreover, it effectively reduces the moral risk and adverse selection risk under the unified rate, and provides a solution to the problem of the mismatch between the payment level and disaster risk bearing capacity and the financial premium subsidy between regions.