基于农业EKC拐点预测视角的乡村振兴

The enlightenment of chinese agricultural EKC in rural revitalization

文章对中国农业污染与经济发展关系问题进行了研究,采用改进的STIRPAT模型与指标,再次验证农业环境库兹涅茨曲线,预测了31省(自治区、直辖市)各自到达拐点的时间,模型中加入控制变量探讨农业污染的影响因素.研究发现:农药、化肥、地膜指标的农业环境库兹涅茨曲线皆为倒U型;各地区农业污染物到达拐点的所需时长不同,化肥所需时间最短,地膜所需时间最长,即使在我国实现"第二个百年目标"的时间长度下,仍有大部分地区没有达到拐点;控制变量农业固定资产投资增大与城镇化率提高均可拉低拐点,减短拐点的到来时间.

We studies the relationship between agricultural pollution and economic development in China, and uses the improved STIRPAT model and indicators to verify the Kuznets curve of the agricultural environment, and predicts the time when the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) reach the inflection point. Variables explore the influencing factors of agricultural pollution. The study found that the agricultural environment Kuznets curves of pesticides, fertilizers and mulch indicators are inverted U-shaped;the time required for agricultural pollutants to reach the inflection point varies from region to region, the time required for chemical fertilizers is the shortest, and the time required for plastic film is the longest, even Under the length of China's realization of the "second century goal", most of the regions have not reached the inflection point;the increase in agricultural fixed asset investment and the increase in urbanization rate can reduce the inflection point and shorten the arrival time of the inflection point.