基于减排目标的氮肥减施项目补偿标准探讨——以2015年上海地区水稻、小麦种植户为例

The Payment for Reducing the Use of Nitrogenous Fertilizer by the Government——Based on the Data of Rice and Wheat Peasants in Shanghai in 2015

鉴于农业碳汇交易市场缺位,以及在此背景下负外部性经济价值不易被估计的事实,根据农业温室气体的边际减排成本,结合减施1单位氮肥引起的"额外"温室气体减排量,政府可以据此制定氮肥减施的补偿标准。基于参数化的方向产出距离函数,本文估算2015年上海地区水稻和小麦二氧化碳当量的影子价格即边际减排成本,得到水稻和小麦种植户氮肥减施的个体理论补偿标准分别分布在11. 99～20. 87元/公斤以及2. 29～6. 93元/公斤,其平均水平分别为17. 14元/公斤和5. 68元/公斤。当实际补偿标准分别不低于20. 87元/公斤和6. 93元/公斤时,水稻和小麦种植户的参与比例预计分别达到100%;当实际补偿标准等于个体理论补偿标准的平均水平时,两类种植户的参与比例预计都接近40%。

The missing of the trading market for agricultural carbon sinks makes it difficult to gain the economic value of the negative externalities.Combining with the marginal abatement cost of the greenhouse gas( GHG) and the amount of the GHG mitigation,the government can set the compensation rate for Nitrogenous fertilizer reduction.First,this paper applies the parametric directional output distance function to calculate shadow prices,which are also marginal abatement costs of the GHG mitigation contributed by rice and wheat peasants in Shanghai in 2015.Second,we estimate theoretical compensation rates for rice growers which distribute from 11.99 to 20.87 yuan/Kg,while those for wheat peasants distribute from 2.29 to 6.93 yuan/Kg.The average theoretical compensation rates for rice and wheat peasants are 17.14 and 5.68 yuan/Kg respectively.Furthermore,this paper explores the relationship between the proportion of the participation in the program and compensation rate for Nitrogenous fertilizer reduction. If compensation rates equal to the average level mentioned above,the proportion of the participation will be no more than 40%.Meanwhile,compensation rates for rice and wheat peasants will be 20.87 and 6.93 yuan/Kg correspondingly with the full participation.