基于贝叶斯决策理论的NSHV分段建模威胁评估

Segmental Modeling Threat Assessment of NSHV Based on Bayesian Decision Theory

临空高超声速飞行器(Near Space Hypersonic Vehicle,NSHV)具备复杂的运动模式和高动态特点,传统的威胁评估方法运用于NSHV时在评估要素选取和评估动态性等方面存在不足。从NSHV的飞行路径入手,将其划分为3个主要的飞行阶段,通过分析其各阶段运动特点和预警探测、拦截能力等因素,基于贝叶斯推理、决策理论建立起NSHV多阶段威胁评估模型,并通过先验概率将各阶段进行关联,保证了评估的继承性,最终建立典型场景进行仿真验证,仿真结果反映的威胁变化符合NSHV的作战特点和所给观测数据,证明该方法更适应NSHV的动态特性,能够为指挥员进行防御作战辅助决策提供支持。

NSHV has complex motion mode and high dynamic characteristics,and the traditional threat assessment methods applied to NSHV are characterized by some deficiencies in the selection of evaluation and the dynamics of evaluation.The flight path of NSHV is divided into three main flight stages.Through analyzing the movement characteristics of each stage and ability of early warning detection and interception,a multi-stage NSHV threat assessment model is established based on Bayesian inference and decision theory,the evaluation of each stage is correlated with prior probability,ensuring the continuity in the assessment.Finally,a typical scenario is established for simulation verification,the threat changes reflected by the simulation results conform to the operational characteristics and the observed data.The dynamic reflected at every stage shows that the changes of threat at each observation point are more suitable for the dynamic characteristics of NSHV,and for the commanders in making defensive operational support decisions.