基于模糊综合评价的突发事件分级研究

Research on Emergency Classification Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

传统突发事件一般采用主观方法分级,划分标准主要依据人员伤亡与经济损失,难以准确量化分析并形成统一标准。以全球恐怖主义数据库中近20年的恐怖袭击事件为例,依据危害性分两个步骤对恐怖袭击事件进行分级。首先通过线性降维PCA算法对大量数据进行处理,获取与恐怖袭击事件危害性最相关的影响因素,再创建模糊综合评价模型,计算得到该恐怖袭击事件评价级别。该模型充分考虑突发事件的各种复杂因素,可满足突发事件分级要求与级别标准化要求。

For traditional emergencies, subjective methods are generally used for grading. The division criteria are mainly based on casualties and economic losses,which is difficult to conduct accurate quantitative analysis and form uniform standards. Taking the terrorist attacks in the global terrorism database for nearly two decades as an example, the classification of terrorist attacks based on harmfulness was completed in two steps. Firstly, a large amount of data is processed by the linear dimensionality reduction PCA algorithm to obtain the most influential factors related to the harmfulness of the terrorist attack. Then, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is created to calculate the evaluation level of the terrorist attack. The model fully considers the various complex factors of emergencies and can meet the grading requirements and level standardization requirements for emergencies.