浙江省虚拟水贸易的损益测度及影响因素研究

The Research on Measurement of Virtual Water Trade and its Impact Factors in ZheJiang

基于投入产出和IO-SDA等模型方法,本文测算了浙江省2007年、2012年和2016年进出口贸易内涵的虚拟水量,并对各产业虚拟水变化的影响因素进行分解分析。2007年出口虚拟水含量和进口虚拟水含量分别为216.84亿吨(48.2%)和83.9亿吨(18.7%),2016年分别为318.08亿吨(34.8%)和92.14亿吨(12.9%),在此期间进口量一直小于出口量。分解影响因素显示:一是进出口贸易内涵虚拟水量变化的主要原因是贸易规模的变化。二是在不同年度、不同部门之间,贸易规模影响存在较大差别。三是真实耗水系数与真实中间投入技术的改善是减缓虚拟水含量增加的主要因素。四是中间投入技术与直接用水系数分解出的结构效应都不明显,且在不同年度、不同部门之间存在较大差异。五是中间投入中进口品占比变化的影响效应不明显。

We Measure Years(2007,2010,2012) Virtual Water of ZheJiang's International Trade and Decompose the Factors of their Change by using Input-Output Model and IO-SDA Model.①Water Coefficient were very different among different Departments.②Virtual Water Embodied in Imports and Exports were 21.68 Billion Tons and 83.9 Billion Tons in 2007;They were 10.64 Billion Tons and 28.6 Billion Tons in 2012.③ The Increase of Trade Scale was the Main Factor of the change of virtual Water Trade.④The Structure Effects of Export and Import were Different among Different Years and Departments.⑤The Real Technology of Intermediate Inputs and the Real Water Coefficient were the Effects which Reduced Embodied Virtual Water.⑥The Structure Effects of Intermediate Technical and Water Coefficient were Different among Different Years and Departments, and were not very Obvious.⑦The Ratio of Inputs were also not Obvious.