基于三角模糊数相似度的区间型组合预测模型

Interval-type Combination Forecasting Model Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number Similarity

文章在用区间数描述的不确定现象组合预测问题中,采用一种新的研究思路,将区间数转换成三角模糊数,选取三角模糊数相似程度的度量指标作为最优准则,构建基于三角模糊数相似度的定权系数区间型组合预测模型。在此基础上,引入广义诱导有序信息集成算子,构建基于三角模糊数相似度的GIOWA算子的变权系数区间型组合预测模型。最后实例分析验证两类模型的合理性和有效性,并针对变权系数模型中GIO?WA算子的参数作出灵敏度分析。

In the integrated prediction of uncertainty phenomena described by interval numbers, this paper adopts a new research idea to convert the interval numbers into triangular fuzzy numbers, and selects the similarity index of triangular fuzzy number as the optimal criterion to construct an interval-type combination prediction model with definite weight coefficient based on the similarity degree of triangular fuzzy numbers, on the basis of which the generalized induced ordered information integration operator is introduced to construct a variable weight interval-type combination prediction model based on similarity of triangular fuzzy number for GIOWA operator. Finally the paper uses examples to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the two models and makes a sensitivity analysis of the parameters of GIOWA operator in the variable weight coefficient model.