代际差异视角下流动人口长期迁移意愿研究

Analysis on Long-term Migration Intention of Floating Population——from the Perspective of Intergenerational Differences

本文运用2015年流动人口动态监测数据,从代际差异视角结合推拉理论分析了流动人口长期迁移意愿,研究结果表明:(1)拉力因素中,收入风险和城镇医保可促进流动人口长期迁移,城镇拉力对新生代流动人口的作用更强;(2)推力因素中,户籍和住房成本抑制了流动人口长期迁移,城镇推力对老一代流动人口的效果更明显,城镇拉力和推力共同促成流动人口"年轻时进城务工,年老时返乡"的局面;(3)中间障碍因素中,就业身份为雇主和自营劳动者的长期迁移意愿更强,对老一代流动人口迁移意愿作用更强;就业经验累积有利于增强流动人口长期迁移意愿,对新一代流动人口迁移意愿影响程度更深;流动范围对流动人口长期迁移意愿的影响不显著,这可能是近年来跨省劳动力流动剧增的原因之一。

Reshaping the relationship between urban and rural areas, arousing the enthusiasm and creativity of peasants, examining the orientation of rural labor forces and the whereabouts of floating population are the keys to the rejuvenation of rural areas. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2015, this paper analyzed the long-term migration intention of floating population from the perspective of intergenerational difference and the theory of push and pull. It is found that:(1) Income risk and urban medical insurance are beneficial to the long-term migration intention of floating population, the effect of urban rally on the new generation of floating population is stronger.(2) Among the thrust factors, the hukou and housing costs become the negative factors of the long-term relocation intention for the floating population, and the effect of the urban thrust on the older generation is more obvious, urban rally and thrust jointly together make the floating population ” being a migrant workers when they are young, and back to the countryside at the old age (3) Among the middle barriers, employers and self-employed workers are more likely to migrate for long periods of time, and this is more influential to the older generation. Employment experience has a significant impact on the floating population' s long - term migration intention, and this is more influential to the younger generation. The effect of the flow scope on the long-term migration intention of the floating population is not significant, this is one of the reasons for the surge in labor flows in recent years.