新一轮集体林权制度改革效果评估——基于双重差分模型的实证分析

Evaluation of the Effect of the New Round of Collective Forest Rights System Reform:Empirical Analysis Based on Double Difference Model

集体林权制度改革是近年除取消农业税以来又一次历史性的农业变革,一直备受学术界关注。本文选取2005-2012年中国省级面板数据,使用双重差分模型进行实证检验,证明了2006年新一轮林改以来,林业产值和农户收入都得到了较大幅度的提高及造林面积也都得到了较为明显的增长,林农对木材的砍伐率提高。最后分地区进行稳健性检验后发现模型估计基本稳健,政策效果显著,但南北差异比较明显。

The reform of the collective forest rights system is another historic agricultural reform since the abolition of the agricultural tax in recent years, and has been receiving much attention from the academic community. This paper selects the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2012, and uses the double difference model to conduct empirical tests. It proves that since the new round of forest reform in 2006, the forestry output value and the income of farmers have been greatly improved and the afforestation area has also obtained obvious growth, forest farmers have increased the rate of deforestation. Finally, the robustness test was carried out in different regions, and the model estimation was basically stable. The policy effect was significant, but the difference between the north and the south was obvious.