外资进入、自主创新与雾霾污染——来自中国的证据

FDI,Independent Innovation and Haze Pollution——Evidence from China

本文构建特定的雾霾污染强度指标并分解为结构效应和技术效应,进而诠释FDI对雾霾污染强度的作用机理,以此为基础构建联立方程模型,识别FDI、自主创新及两者互动影响雾霾污染强度的具体机制,并结合弹性分析法、反事实模拟法及动态空间面板模型,对FDI的雾霾污染效应进行实证考察。研究结果表明:FDI通过产业结构渠道加剧雾霾污染,但可通过环境技术与经济发展渠道降低雾霾污染; FDI与自主创新的交互作用在引起产业结构向污染方向演变的同时显著提升了环境技术水平; FDI总体上能降低中国雾霾污染强度,因为其积极的环境技术效应强于负面的产业结构效应,且充分提升自主创新能力可使FDI对减霾的效果提升约85. 7%;从空间维度、时间维度和时空维度上看,雾霾污染强度分别表现出显著的泄漏效应、滚雪球效应及警戒效应,且邻近地区FDI通过环境规制"逐底竞争"与产业结构"污染化"等途径加剧本地雾霾污染,增强了地区间环境污染的空间联动性。因此,在完善跨区域环境污染联防联控机制的基础上,充分发挥自主创新与FDI的协同效应是比单纯引资更有效的治霾策略。

It constructed the haze pollution intensity index and decomposed the index into structure effect and technology effect,and then explained the mechanisms of FDI on haze pollution intensity. On this basis,it built the simultaneous equations model to test the mechanisms of FDI,independent innovation and their interaction on haze pollution intensity,and analyzed the effect of FDI on haze pollution by using elastic analysis method,counter factual test method and dynamic spatial panel model. The main findings are: FDI exacerbates haze pollution by the channel of industrial structure,but reduces haze pollution by promoting environmental technology and economic development;the interaction between FDI and independent innovation promotes environmental technology,but pushes industrial structure towards high pollution industry;on the whole,FDI reduces China ’s haze pollution intensity because FDI ’s positive technical effect makes up for the negative structural effect. Fully enhancing the ability of independent innovation increases the positive effect of FDI on haze pollution to about 85. 7%. From the spatial dimension,the time dimension and the dimension of time and space,China’s haze pollution presents the characteristics of the leakage effect,snowball effect and warning effect,and FDI in the neighboring areas increases the local haze pollution by the channels of race to the bottom and industrial structure,which further enhance the spatial linkage of inter-regional pollution. Therefore,on the basis of establishing cross-regional environmental pollution joint prevention and control mechanism,strengthening synergetic effect of FDI and independent innovation is more effective to reduce haze.