基于可变模糊集理论的生态脆弱地区水资源承载力时空变化研究

Study on Temporal and Spatial Variation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Ecological Fragile Areas Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Theory

科学地评价水资源承载力对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。以玛纳斯河、塔里木河流域为例,根据生态脆弱的西北内陆干旱区水资源的开发利用特点,从社会、经济、环境等不同方面选取主要影响区域水资源承载力的因素作为评价因子,运用可变模糊集理论,对玛纳斯河流域2000、2010、2020年水资源承载力进行评价,并分析了随时间变化趋势,水资源承载力水平随年限的增长逐渐上升;对塔里木河流域内5个不同区域的水资源承载力进行评价,并分析了空间变化趋势,水资源承载力从大到小依次为克州、巴州、和田、喀什、阿克苏;将结果与其他方法所得结果进行对比分析,验证了可变模糊集理论的合理性和优越性,解决了水资源承载力评价中各评价指标的不确定性、模糊性问题。

Scientific evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is of great significance to regional sustainable development. Taking the Manas River Basin and the Tarim River Basin as examples, in accordance with the characteristics of water resources development and utilization of ecological fragile system in the arid areas of Northwest China, the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of regional water resources were selected as evaluation factors from different aspects of society, economy and ecological environment, and the carrying capacity of water resources in Manas River Basin in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was evaluated by using variable fuzzy sets theory, and the time trend was analyzed. The carrying capacity of water resources increased gradually over the years. It also evaluated the carrying capacity of water resources in five areas of the Tarim River Basin, and the spatial change trend was analyzed, and water resources carrying capacity from big to small was Kizilsu, Bazhou, Khotan, Kashgar and Aksu. The results are compared with the results obtained by other methods, which verifies the rationality and superiority of the variable fuzzy sets theory, and solves the uncertainty and fuzziness of each evaluation index in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.