广州市房地产市场泡沫的测度与成因研究

Study on Measurement and Causes of the Real Estate Bubble in Guangzhou

房地产泡沫的测度及科学分析,对城市房地产泡沫的预警和防范以及经济的健康、平稳的发展都至关重要。本文将基础值测度法和泡沫膨胀速度法相结合,进而测算出泡沫度。通过实证研究发现,2012-2017年广州市房地产价格脱离基本面,泡沫逐渐膨胀,且随着消费、投机需求的增加,泡沫也持续增大;同时,房地产开发投资越大,房地产泡沫也越大。因此,降低房价、治理广州房地产泡沫应从改革土地管理制度,发展经济适用房及银行信贷管理入手,进而从源头上割断推动地价、房价上涨的利益链条。

The measurement and scientific analysis of the real estate bubble is crucial for the early warning and prevention of the urban real estate bubble as well as the healthy and stable development of the economy. In this paper, the basic value measurement method and the foam expansion speed method are combined to measure the degree of foam. According to the empirical analysis, the prices of the real estate in Guangzhou in 2012-2017 deviated from the fundamentals, and the bubble gradually inflated. Also, with the increase of the consumption and speculative demand, the bubble also continued to increase. Meanwhile, the real estate bubble became bigger because of the larger investment in the real estate. Therefore, reducing the prices of the real estate and controlling the real estate bubble in Guangzhou should start from reforming the land management system, developing the economically affordable housing and managing the bank credit,which can cut off the interest chain that drives the rise of the land prices and the house prices from the source.