国际技术溢出、人力资本与丝绸之路经济带能源效率改进——基于投影寻踪模型和随机前沿分析法

International Technology Spillover,Human Capital and Energy Efficiency Improvement in Silk Road Economic Belt——Based on Projection Pursuit Model and Stochastic Frontier Analysis

采用2003～2015年的省际面板数据,运用投影寻踪模型和随机前沿分析法测算了丝绸之路经济带各地区的能源效率,考察了两种国际技术溢出渠道对能源效率的影响,并探讨了人力资本在两种国际技术溢出影响能源效率过程中的调节作用,最后,通过反事实检验法对两种国际技术溢出对丝绸之路经济带能源效率的改进作用以及人力资本的调节作用进行了量化核算。研究表明:两种国际技术溢出渠道均能提升丝绸之路经济带地区的能源效率,且外商直接投资的提升作用更为明显;人力资本的积累能强化国际技术溢出对能源效率的改进作用,且对进口贸易的调节作用更为明显;反事实检验结果表明,进口贸易和外商直接投资能将丝绸之路经济带的能源效率分别提升3. 64%和2. 74%,人力资本的积累则能将两种技术溢出的能源效率改进作用分别提升11. 3%和13. 1%,并且,上述作用机制在西北地区表现更为明显。上述结论为全面开放新格局下丝绸之路经济带通过提高人力资本、承接国际技术溢出,进而实现绿色低碳发展提供了政策启示。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2015,this paper uses projection pursuit model and stochastic frontier analysis method to calculate the energy efficiency of various regions of the Silk Road Economic Belt,and examines the impacts of two international technology spillovers on energy efficiency.Through the counterfactual test,we quantify and assess the energy efficiency improvement by two international technology spillovers in the Silk Road Economic Belt,and the coordination by human capital during the process herein.The results show that both international technology spillovers can improve the energy efficiency in the Silk Road economic zone,and the promotion effect of FDI is more obvious.The accumulation of human capital can strengthen the improvement of international technology spillover on energy efficiency and more enhance the efficiency of import trade.The counterfactual test shows that import trade and FDI can increase the energy efficiency in the Silk Road Economic Belt by 3.64%and 2.74%respectively,while the accumulation of human capital can increase the energy efficiency improvement of the two technology spillovers respectively by 11.3%and 13.1%,and such mechanism is more obvious in the northwest.The above conclusion has provided policy suggestion for the development in the Silk Road Economic Belt through raising the level of human capital,undertaking international technology spillovers to realize green and low-carbon development under the new pattern of opening up.