世界及中国油气发展形势初步分析

Preliminary Analysis of Oil and Gas Development in the World and China

本文分析了世界石油及天然气资源、石油生产成本和市场变化趋势,特别是美国页岩油成本的不断降低,美国页岩气和LNG产业的快速发展,对国际石油价格以及对全球LNG供需形势的影响;概括介绍了国外地下储备库建设情况以及对能源安全内涵认识的不断变化。从中国石油天然气需求和对外依存度的快速增长出发,分析了中国石油及天然气产业发展面临的形势,指出加大国内石油天然气勘探开发力度,努力稳定石油产量、加快天然气产业发展极其重要并且是具备资源基础的;分析了中国天然气市场的特点,指出天然气价格与替代燃料相比要有竞争力,有竞争力的价格是国际LNG供应商扩大中国市场的条件。

This article aims to analyze the influence on global oil price and LNG supply & demand, which includes the factors of global oil & gas reserve change, production cost and market situation, especially the continuously descending cost of U.S. shale oil and the rapid growth of U.S. shale oil and LNG industry. It also tries to summarize the current situation of oversea underground storage facility construction, and introduce the ever changing cognition on the concept of energy safety. By analyzing the development environment which the Chinese oil & gas industry are now facing under the condition of rapid climbing domestic oil & gas demand and external dependence, this article emphasizes the importance of increasing investment on domestic oil & gas exploration and development, and tries to illustrate that the resource condition is mature for stabilizing oil production and accelerating the development of natural gas industry. Meanwhile, it analyzes the characteristics of China’s natural gas market,and points out that natural gas price shall be competitive when compared with alternative fuels, and competitive price is a necessary condition to the expansion in Chinese market for global LNG suppliers.