新能源汽车发展对能源行业的影响分析

The Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on Energy Industry

中国是个"富煤、缺油、少气"的国家,以煤炭为主的能源消费特点亟待转型。改革开放以来,中国经济实现了快速发展,对能源需求也同步快速增长。目前,我国石油对外依存度已逼近70%,发展新能源汽车是改变终端交通领域对石油强依赖的重要措施,预测其发展趋势对我国能源结构预测意义重大。动力电池技术进步、电池成本下降速度是决定新能源汽车能否与燃油车抗衡的关键因素。同时,自动驾驶技术和共享出行模式也将作为催化剂加速新能源汽车快速普及。通过搭建预测体系模型分情景预判新能源汽车电动化趋势,以此推算其对我国能源消费产生的重大影响。

China is rich in coal deposits while short in petroleum and gas. The characteristics of this coalbased energy consumption now need urgently to be transformed. Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has achieved rapid development, and the energy demand is also growing rapidly. China’s oil dependence on foreign countries is almost 70% in 2017. Developing EVs and FCEVs is an important way to reduce the strong dependence on oil in the field of terminal transportation. Predicting its development trend also has great significance to China’s energy structure prediction. The technological progress of power batteries and the speed of reduction of battery cost are the key factors to decide whether EVs can compete with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. At the same time, autonomous driving technology and shared transportation mode will also be used as a catalyst to accelerate the rapid of new energy vehicles. By setting up a mathematics model to predict the trend of new energy vehicles in different scenarios, we can calculate its significant impact on China’s energy consumption.