“一带一路”核电出口模式选择研究

Research on Selection of Nuclear Power Export Mode along the Belt and Road

"一带一路"沿线国家核电市场条件复杂且竞争激烈,核电出口过程中企业随时都面临着业主国政治动荡、政策变化、经济波动、文化差异引起的项目风险,选择合理有效的核电出口模式,可以帮助核电出口企业有效规避和转移风险。"一带一路"沿线国家电力工程出口模式主要有EPC模式、BOT模式和PPP模式,业主与总承包方的合同关系往往受到各自风险因素的影响,而不同的风险因素可能会使企业选择不同的出口模式。影响企业核电出口模式选择的主要因素有政治因素、经济因素、法律因素、文化因素,综合评判认为,相对于法律和文化因素,业主国的政治和经济因素的总体影响更加重要。在政治因素主导的国家,企业应优先选择EPC模式。这些国家政治因素带来的风险相对较低,但受制于国内的经济因素,需要借助于出口国提供充足、便捷的融资服务,此时选择EPC模式更有利于降低出口国整体投资风险。而在经济因素主导的国家,BOT模式和PPP模式的高效率可以逐步体现出来。通过经济有力的政府引导和自由市场的有效配置,BOT模式和PPP模式能够为核电出口企业实现更多的超额收益。

Thenuclear power market of countries along the Belt and Road is featured by complex conditions and fierce competition.Duringnuclear power export,enterprises are faced with project risks caused by political turmoil,policy changes,economic fluctuations and cultural differences in the owner country.The selection of reasonable and effective nuclear power export mode can help the nuclear power export enterpriseseffectively avoid and transfer the risks.The power export mode of the countries along the Belt and Road mainly in-cludes EPC mode,BOT mode and PPP mode.The contractual relationship between the owner and the general contractor is often influenced by their respective risk factors,and different risk factors may cause the enterprise to select different export modes.The main factors influencing the selection of nuclear power export mod-eare political factors,economic factors,legal factors and cultural factors.According to comprehensive evaluation,the overall influence of the political and economic factors of the owner country is more important than the legal and cultural factors.In countries dominated by political factors,enterprises should give priority to the EPC mode.The risks brought about by political factors are relatively low in these countries,but influenced by domestic economic factors,the exporting countries need to provide sufficient and convenient financing services.At this time,selecting EPC mode is more conducive to reducing the overall investment risk of the exporting countries.In countries dominated by economic factors,the high efficiency of BOT mode and PPP mode can be gradually reflected.Through the economic powerful government guidance and effective allocation of free market,the BOT mode and PPP mode can achieve more excess returns for the nuclear power export enterprises.