国有经济的阻滞效应——基于2001—2016年统计数据的分析

The Retarding Effect of State-owned Economy——Based on the Analysis of Statistical Data From 2001 to 2016

近年来国有经济的规模有所下降,我国的经济也一直起伏不定,国有经济规模是否具有阻滞效应值得研究。本文选取2001—2016年的时间序列数据,通过建立Granger因果分析模型、VAR模型等来研究国有经济规模的阻滞效应。实证研究发现,国有经济规模的波动对经济的影响很大,且国有经济在很大程度上对我国经济有阻滞效应。

In recent years,the scale of state_owned economy has declined,and China's economy has been fluctuating.Whether the scale of the state_owned economy has a blocking effect is worth studying.In this paper,time series data from 2001 to 2016 are selected,and the blocking effect of state_owned economy scale is studied by establishing Granger causal analysis model and VAR model.Empirical findings:the fluctuation of state-owned economy scale has a great influence on the economy,and the state-owned economy has a blocking effect on China's economy to a large extent.