哈尔滨市土地利用动态变化模拟研究

Study on Dynamic Change of Land Use in Harbin

以哈尔滨市为研究区,定量分析了土地利用时空变化情况,结果表明1995～2015年间哈尔滨市耕地向城乡建设用地、林地转移;城乡建设用地的增加主要来自耕地、未利用地、林地、草地.运用ANN-CA模型、Logistic-CA模型和DT-CA模型,对1995～2005、2005～2015年城市土地利用变化趋势分别进行分析和模拟.结果表明:ANN-CA模型在模拟多种土地利用类型之间的转换更具优势;Logistic-CA和DT-CA更适用于非城市用地到城市用地单一土地利用类型之间的转换.选用模拟精度最高的ANN-CA模型对哈尔滨市和2015～2025年和2025～2035年的土地利用进行预测.结果表明:2015～2025年城乡建设用地的面积增加,耕地、林地、水域、未利用地的面积减少,2025～2035年城乡工矿居民用地的面积虽然仍在增加,但增长速率较2015～2025年减慢.

Take Harbin as research area, the spatiotemporal changes of land use from 1995 to 2015 is qualitatively analyzed, cultivated land in Harbin is transferred to urban and rural construction land and forest land.The increase of urban and rural construction land mainly comes from cultivated land, unused land, woodland and grassland.ANN-CA model, Logistic-CA model and DT-CA model are used to analyze and simulate the change trend of urban land use from 1995 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2015 respectively.The results show that ANN-CA model has more advantages in simulating the conversion between different land use types.Logistic-CA and DT-CA are more suitable for conversion from non-urban land to single land use type.ANN-CA model with the highest simulation accuracy is selected to predict the land use of Harbin city and from 2015 to 2025 and from 2025 to 2035.The results show that the area of land used for construction in urban and rural areas increased from 2015 to 2025, while the area of arable land, forest land, water area and unused land decreased. Although the area of land used for industrial and mining residents in urban and rural areas still increases from 2025 to 2035, the growth rate is slower than that in 2015 to 2025.