重复决策中的概率匹配行为及其认知机制

Probability Matching Behavior in Repeated Decision Making and its Underlying Cognitive Process

概率匹配是行为决策领域的一类经典的反常行为,被大量研究证实。传统的启发式和偏差研究取向以概率和逻辑法则作为衡量理性行为的金标准,却忽略了个体差异及环境变量对行为的影响。本文从认知过程和决策环境两个维度系统地探讨了可能导致概率匹配行为的策略,分析了每种策略在每种环境下的有效性。文章梳理了行为决策领域和行为生态学领域的大量经验证据,讨论了匹配概率行为原理在法律、金融等实际领域的应用。

Probability matching is one of the most important anomalies which violates the utility maximization principle in the normative decision theory.In the traditional Heuristic-and-Biases approach,probabilistic and logical principles are a golden standard for rational decision making.However,the individual differences,and the impact of environmental variables on behaviors are largely neglected.This article systematically discusses several strategies that can lead to the same explicit probability matching behavior from a two-dimension framework of behavioral analysis.In this framework,cognitive processes and environment variables are two independent components.The empirical evidences from both human and animal studies are summarized.Some application domains of probability matching,such as economics,financial and law,are discussed.