中非地区国家武装冲突与疟疾流行相关性的研究

Correlation of armed conflicts and malaria epidemics in central Africa

目的研究中非地区国家武装冲突与疟疾流行的相关性。方法收集中非地区7个国家1997-2016年每年疟疾确诊人数、武装冲突次数和武装冲突死亡人数,运用地理信息系统绘制武装冲突地理情况。采用线性回归模型分析武装冲突与疟疾确诊人数之间的关系。结果地理信息系统分析结果显示刚果民主共和国是中非地区武装冲突最为频发的国家;Spearman等级相关分析显示:中非地区7个国家中,刚果民主共和国武装冲突次数与疟疾确诊人数呈正相关(P<0.05)。线性回归分析结果显示刚果民主共和国年疟疾确诊人数与武装冲突年均次数线性相关。结论武装冲突次数与疟疾在刚果民主共和国的流行有明显的关联。

Objective To study the correlation between armed conflicts and malaria epidemic in the countries of central Africa.Methods The number of confirmed malaria cases,time of armed conflicts and number of deaths in armed conflicts were collected form the 7 countries of central Africa from 1997 to 2016,and the geographical situation of armed conflicts was drawn using Geographic Information System(GIS).A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between armed conflicts and the number of malaria epidemics.Results GIS analysis showed that Democratic Republic of the Congo had the highest frequency of the armed conflicts.Spearman rank correlation analysis indicated that among the 7 countries in the central Africa,the number of armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was positively correlated with the number of confirmed malaria cases(P<0.05).Linear regression analysis suggested that the number of confirmed malaria cases in the country was linearly related to the annual number of armed conflicts.Conclusion The number of armed conflicts is clearly associated with the prevalence of malaria in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.