摘要
为了探索碳交易政策在二氧化碳减排成本方面的影响,文章基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),构建全国碳排放交易政策仿真模型,引入边际减排成本曲线,对碳交易政策及其各子政策的减排成本进行分析.研究发现:在不同的碳交易子政策中,碳配额设置是最敏感的,较小的幅度变化会引起较大的减排成本的变化.同时,除了惩罚政策,其余政策减排成本曲线都呈上升趋势,减排成本随减排率的变化而同向变化.但对于惩罚政策,惩罚价格越大,减排成本越低.因此,建议采用略高于碳价的惩罚价格在不引起较高减排成本的同时来保证碳交易政策的有效性.
For analyzing emission trading schemes(ETS) and its abatement costs,this article introduces marginal abatement cost curve and computational general equilibrium(CGE) tool to construct an overall carbon ETS simulation model in order to explore the impact of carbon ETS on the abatement cost of carbon emission reduction. Simulation results show that the carbon cap is observed to be the most sensitive sub-policy which should be carefully designed, and a tighter level will lead to a far larger emissions reduction cost under a given mitigation level. In addition to the penalty policy, the emission reduction cost curves of other sub-policies shows an upward trend, but penalty policy indicates a downward trend, in which a higher level of penalty price otherwise brings about a lesser mitigation cost. Therefore, a penalty price with a little higher than carbon price is strongly recommended to guarantee the mitigation effect of ETS without a too high mitigation cost.
作者
汤铃
张亮
余乐安
TANG Ling;ZHANG Liang;YU Le-an(School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029)
出处
《系统科学与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期51-64,共14页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
基金
国家优秀青年基金(71622011)
国家重点研究计划重点专项(2016YFF0204405)资助课题
关键词
动态CGE模型
碳交易
减排成本曲线
经济发展
环境影响
Dynamic CGE
carbon emissions trading scheme
marginal abatement cost curve
economic development
environmental impact