基于动态CGE模型的碳交易政策减排成本影响研究

The Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Scheme on Emission Abatement Cost Based on Dynamic CGE Model

为了探索碳交易政策在二氧化碳减排成本方面的影响,文章基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),构建全国碳排放交易政策仿真模型,引入边际减排成本曲线,对碳交易政策及其各子政策的减排成本进行分析.研究发现:在不同的碳交易子政策中,碳配额设置是最敏感的,较小的幅度变化会引起较大的减排成本的变化.同时,除了惩罚政策,其余政策减排成本曲线都呈上升趋势,减排成本随减排率的变化而同向变化.但对于惩罚政策,惩罚价格越大,减排成本越低.因此,建议采用略高于碳价的惩罚价格在不引起较高减排成本的同时来保证碳交易政策的有效性.

For analyzing emission trading schemes(ETS) and its abatement costs,this article introduces marginal abatement cost curve and computational general equilibrium(CGE) tool to construct an overall carbon ETS simulation model in order to explore the impact of carbon ETS on the abatement cost of carbon emission reduction. Simulation results show that the carbon cap is observed to be the most sensitive sub-policy which should be carefully designed, and a tighter level will lead to a far larger emissions reduction cost under a given mitigation level. In addition to the penalty policy, the emission reduction cost curves of other sub-policies shows an upward trend, but penalty policy indicates a downward trend, in which a higher level of penalty price otherwise brings about a lesser mitigation cost. Therefore, a penalty price with a little higher than carbon price is strongly recommended to guarantee the mitigation effect of ETS without a too high mitigation cost.