基于灰色马尔可夫模型的节能设备故障预测研究

Forecasting Energy-Saving Equipment Failure Based on Grey-Markov Model

精准预测节能设备故障可以有效节约节能服务公司运营成本,直接关系到节能服务公司的节能项目管理.根据灰色系统理论,将灰色均值GM(1,1)模型与马尔可夫模型融合,通过灰色马尔可夫模型预测节能设备的故障状况.具体而言,首先通过灰色均值GM(1,1)模型预测节能设备的未来故障情况,然后通过马尔可夫状态转移矩阵确定未来节能设备故障的可能状态,最后基于预测值与实际值的比值关系修正预测结果,以实现对节能设备故障次数的精准预测.结果表明灰色马尔可夫模型提高了预测精度,为精准预测节能设备故障提供了一种新思路.

It is critical to accurately predict the failure of energy-saving equipment because it could effectively reduce the overall operation cost of energy service companies, which is directly related to energy service companies’ project management performance. Based on the grey system theory, this study attempts to predict the failure of energy-saving equipment through a proposed Grey-Markov model integrating the advantages of the grey mean GM(1,1) model and the Markov model. Particularly, the paper first forecasts the future failure conditions of energy-saving equipment through the grey mean GM(1,1) model, and then estimates the possible status of the future failure status of energy-saving equipment by the Markov state transition matrix.Finally, the prediction results are adjusted through a comparison of the prediction results and the actual conditions, in order to promote the accurate prediction of the failure of energy-saving equipment. The findings prove that the Grey-Markov model proposed can be a new way to predict the failure of energy-saving equipment for achieving higher prediction accuracy.