ICT提升中国经济增长质量的机理与效应分析

Mechanism and Effect of Information and Communication Technology on Enhancing the Quality of China’s Economic Growth

信息通信技术(ICT)作为新一轮产业革命的核心与通用目的技术,有利于提升经济增长质量,其基本机理是:大规模ICT资本投资、ICT生产部门生产率迅速增长以及ICT对传统产业部门的大规模信息化改造,将显著提升要素生产率,优化产业结构。本文利用增长核算模型和两部门模型,在测算我国ICT生产性资本存量的基础上,对ICT提升我国经济增长质量的效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:1995-2015年,我国ICT资本投入增长迅速且资本深化效应明显,ICT资本对经济总产出的贡献份额呈上升趋势;ICT产业全要素生产率(TFP)增长率显著高于整体经济平均水平,且对整体经济生产率提升作用逐渐强化;ICT产业对产业结构优化升级的直接带动作用较明显,但溢出效应尚不显著且存在一定的时滞;相较于ICT制造业,软件业对其他产业的溢出效应不明显。为此,应着力提升ICT投资效率,强化ICT核心技术自主创新,进一步深化ICT融合应用,全面提升产业协同创新能力。

As a core and general-purpose technology in this new round of industrial revolution, the ICT can enhance the quality of economic growth. Its basic mechanism is that the large-scale capital investment in ICT, rapid development of ICT productivity and the renovation of information in the traditional sectors can significantly upgrade the factor productivity and optimize the industrial structure. Based on estimating the Chinese ICT productive capital stock, this paper does an empirical studies on the contribution and effect of ICT on the quality of economic growth in China by using the growth accounting and two-sector models. It is found that during the period from 1995-2015, the contribution of ICT capital to total economic output rose as the ICT capital investment increased rapidly with an obviously in-depth capital effect. The TFP growth in ICT industry is significantly higher than the overall average economic growth, while the contribution to the overall productivity crescendoed. It was obvious that the ICT had a direct impact on optimizing and escalating the industrial structure, but the spillover effect was not so notable even with a time lag. Compared with ICT manufacturing, the software industry had a more limited spillover effect on other industries. Therefore, efforts should be devoted to enhance the efficiency of ICT capital investment, accelerate the core ICT innovation, strengthen the integrated ICT application and upgrade the capability of synergistic industrial innovation.