中国海上能源通道安全性多主体建模与仿真

Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation on China's Marine Energy Channel Security

分析了中国海上能源通道安全影响因素,描述了中国石油进口运输的实际情况,基于多主体建模与仿真方法,从微观层面出发,构建了中国海上石油运输(中东航线)多主体仿真模型,设计并实现了NetLogo平台下的仿真程序,在验证模型有效性的基础上,对海上石油进口安全影响进行了仿真实验。结果显示我国拥有的超级油轮数量远远不够;热带气旋带来的安全影响比海盗更为严重;油轮数量增加比例通常低于油运总量增加的比例,而海盗与热带气旋的增加比例越大,油运总量变化比例加速增大。

Security factors influencing China’s offshore energy channel are analyzed, and the actual situation of China’s oil import and transportation is described. Based on multi-agent modeling and simulation method, and starting at the micro level, the energy transport process is simulated and a multi-agent model of China’s offshore energy channel(middle east lines) is built;and the simulation program on the NetLogo platform is conducted. The results show that the quantity of China’s VLCC is far from enough;the security impact of tropical cyclones is more serious than that of pirates;the increase proportion of carrier’s quantity is usually lower than that of the total oil transportation, while the larger the increase proportion of pirates and tropical cyclones, the faster the change proportion of total oil transportation.