政府土地财政影响下土地溢价规律研究

The Law of Land Premium under the Effect of Government's Land Finance

近年来,在中国土地市场,土地交易价的溢价超过市场预期,全国一线城市"地王"的频出,高溢价地块使得土地市场失灵。本文基于深圳、东莞、佛山和广州4座城市2007～2013年的地块交易数据进行实证分析,研究城市政府土地财政行为对土地溢价的影响。通过构建基于土地溢价率的Tobit模型,从土地财政依赖性,经济发展水平,土地供给和需求等几个方面来研究土地溢价的一般规律。结果表明:地方政府土地财政的依赖性与土地溢价呈现显著的正相关关系,经济发展水平与土地溢价呈现负相关关系。

In recent years, the premium of the land is higher than the market expected,"the king land" coming out frequently in the national first-tier cities, land market turn to be market failure. In this paper, we use the land transaction data of Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhuhai and Guangzhou, from 2007 to 2013 to discuss the effects of the city government’s land fiscal behavior on the land premium. From several aspects, such as the dependency of land fiscal, the development of economy, the supply and demand of the land, to study the law of the land premium by building a Tobit model. The results show that the dependency of land finance has positive correlation for land premium. And the development of economy has a negatively effects on land premium.