金融化对实体经济增长的非线性效应及阶段特征

Non-linear Effects of Financialization on Real Economic Growth and its Stage Characteristics

基于2002～2016年31个省份的面板数据,以金融化指数为门槛变量,构建面板门槛模型检验金融化对实体经济增长的非线性效应与阶段特征。结果表明,金融化与实体经济增长之间存在合理的金融化波动阈值,在合理阈值范围内金融化对实体经济增长具有正外部效应;超出合理阈值则具有负外部性。此外,金融化对实体经济增长的非线性效应呈现鲜明的阶段性特征,在高涨期与衰退期,二者之间均存在"阈值效应",且高涨期内实体经济增长对金融化的波动更为敏感;在正常期,金融化能够有效促进实体经济的稳定增长。因此,政府应当根据经济发展需求完善金融体系,加强对金融体系的监管,针对性地制定合理有效的经济金融政策,实现金融与实体的良性互动,以更好地引导金融回归本源,服务实体经济。

Based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces for the period 2002-2016,this study used the financialization index as a threshold variable to construct a panel threshold model and test the non-linear effects of financialization and its stage characteristics on real economic growth.Results show that there is a reasonable financial volatility threshold between financialization and real economic growth.Financialization has a positive external effect on real economic growth within the reasonable threshold,while there is negative externality if it exceeds the threshold.In addition,the non-linear effects of financialization on the growth of the real economy exhibit distinct stage characteristics.Particularly in the high and low periods,a "threshold effect" is observed between the two,and the growth of the real economy is more sensitive to the volatility of financialization.In normal periods,financialization can effectively promote stable growth in the real economy.Therefore,the government should improve the financial system according to the needs of economic development,strengthen supervision of the financial system,formulate reasonable and effective economic and financial policies in a targeted manner,and ensure positive interaction between finance and entities,to bring finance to fulfill its fundamental purpose as well as develop the real economy.