基于地缘经济利益的北极航道各利益相关主体的综合实力评价

Evaluation of Comprehensive Strength of Stakeholders in the Arctic Passage Based on Geo-economic Benefits

从地缘角度出发,在界定北极航道引致的地缘经济利益的基础上,采用层次分析法构建综合实力评价指标体系,并结合灰色关联法,对北极航道利益相关主体的综合实力以及影响因素进行聚类比较分析。结果表明:(1)中、日、美、俄是北极航道各利益相关主体中综合实力最强的,传统航线受益国的综合实力最弱;北极理事会观察国中,德、韩、英、法、意的综合实力较强,与美俄之外的环北极国家相当,而西班牙、印度、新加坡的实力则相对较弱;(2)北极航道各利益主体的综合实力主要由其获得能力决定,其中,远洋航行技术是首要因素,经济实力的重要性与地理区位相当,军事实力的影响最小。

From the geopolitical point of view, based on the definition of the geo - economic interests caused by the Arctic Passage, this paper firstly uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to construct an evaluation index system for comprehensive strength of the stakeholders in the Arctic Passage and then uses the grey correlation method to do a cluster analysis on the comprehensive strength and influencing factors. The results show that:(1) On the one hand, among all the stakeholders of the Arctic Passage, China, Japan, the United States and Russia have the strongest comprehensive strength and meanwhile the traditional route beneficiary countries the weakest;on the other hand, among the observer states of the Arctic Council, the comprehensive strength of Germany, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France and Italy is relatively strong, which is comparable to that of the Arctic countries Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Canada and Denmark, while that of Spain, India, and Singapore relatively weak.(2) The comprehensive strength of the various stakeholders in the Arctic Passage is mainly determined by their ability to acquire. Ocean navigation technology is the primary factor;the difference between economic strength and geographical location is not too much;the influence of military power is the least.