西南少数民族地区产业结构演进与经济增长分析——以四川省西昌市为例

Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth Analysis in Southwest Minority Areas——A Case Study of Xichang City,Sichuan Province

产业结构的合理化和高级化是衡量一个地区经济是否发达的重要标志。在当前中西部地区产业承接转移加快的背景下,分析贫困地区产业结构与经济增长之间的关系对促进区域经济协调发展,全面建成小康社会具有更加重要的意义。以地处我国西南少数民族地区的四川省西昌市为例,采用1986-2017年相关数据,运用VAR模型、Granger因果检验等对其产业结构与经济增长的内在联系进行了实证研究。结果表明:产业结构优化升级对地区经济增长有明显促进作用,其中,第三产业对于第一、二产业及地区经济发展的拉动作用明显;第二产业虽为主导产业但对经济增长拉动力不强。中西部少数民族地区应进一步优化产业结构,合理推动产业承接转移,加快科技创新发展。

The rationalization and high grade of the industrial structure is an important mark of measuring whether a regional economy is developed. In the context of accelerating industrial transfer in the midwest regions,it is of more significance to analysis the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in poverty - stricken areas for promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. This paper takes Xichang City,Sichuan Province which locates in southwest minority areas of China as an example,adopts relevant data from 1986 to 2017 and analyzes the internal relationship between industrial structure and economic growth of Xichang City by VAR model and Granger causality test,etc. The results show that the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has a significant promoting effect on regional economic grow th. Among them ,tertiary industry has a significant pulling impact on primary industry, secondary industry and regional economies;although the secondary industry is a leading industry,it is not a strong driving force for economic growth. Therefore, the midwest minority areas should further optimize the industrial structure , reasonably promote the industry transfer and accelerate the scientific and technological innovation development.