近15年山东省人地关系演变过程与驱动因素分析

The Evolution and Driving Factors of Man-Land Relationship in Shandong Province in the Past 15 Years

以山东省为例,构建人地关系演变协调度、耦合度和响应度模型,并运用数理统计分析方法识别人地关系演变的驱动因素。研究表明:①2002—2016年山东省国土空间开发强度指数呈逐渐上升趋势,由0.043 8增长到0.974 5,资源环境承载力指数呈先降后升的趋势,由0.409 1下降到0.304 0,后又回升至0.749 1;②人地关系从良好协调状态转向高水平协调状态,耦合度经历了从拮抗阶段到磨合阶段向高水平耦合的跨越,国土空间开发强度对资源环境承载力影响表现出由"胁迫效应"向"促进响应"的转变过程;③经济发展水平、资源有效利用、经济效益、区际关系、环境规制强度、生态系统修复、市场化指数对人地关系协调起正向驱动作用,而当前空间均衡状态起负向驱动作用。研究对缓解山东省区域人地矛盾、推动区域绿色发展和生态文明建设提供借鉴和参考。

This study constructs a coordination,coupling,and responsivity model for the evolution of man-land relations by taking Shandong province as an example.Mathematical statistics are used to identify the drivers of the evolution for the man-land relationship.Our results are as follows.(i)Between 2002-2016,the land space development intensity index in Shandong province was gradually increased from 0.043 8 to 0.974 5,and the resource and environmental carrying capacity index fell from 0.409 1 to 0.304 0 first and then rose to 0.749 1,indicating that there existed a trend of decreasing first followed by increasing.(ii)The man-land relationship shifted from a well-coordinated pattern to a high-level coordination,and the coupling degree experienced a leap from the antagonism to the run-in phase and to the high level coupling.The impact of the land space development intensity on the resource and environmental carrying capacity changed from“coercive effect”to“promoting response”.(iii)The level of economic development,efficient use of resources,economic benefits,interregional relationship,environmental regulation intensity,ecosystems restoration,and marketization indexes have exerted positive influences on the coordination of the man-land relationship,but the current spatial equilibrium was negative in influence.Our present research should provide references for remediating the conflict between human and land,and promoting the regional green development and ecological civilization construction in Shandong province.