碳排放约束、土地红利锐减与经济增长尾效

Carbon Emission Constraints,Sharp Reduction of Land Dividend and Economic Growth Drag

基于2000～2016年中国省域的面板数据,在Romer经济增长"尾效"假说的基础上,使用空间计量的方法对碳排放和土地资源约束下的中国省域经济增长"尾效"进行测算,并讨论了空间溢出视角下的经济增长直接"尾效"和间接"尾效".研究表明:(1)中国省域经济增长过程中存在明显的空间相关性,由于资源的限制,经济增长的空间差异有扩大的趋势.(2)资本、碳排放、土地和劳动力要素投入都对经济增长存在空间溢出,间接影响了邻近地区的经济增长.(3)经测算,碳排放和土地资源约束下的中国经济增长尾效值为0.0584,其经济学解释为:中国经济增长速度由于碳排放和土地资源的约束比没有约束的情况下要年均降低5.84个百分点.

Based on the panel data of China's provinces from 2000 to 2016, and on the basis of Romer's hypothesis of economic growth drag, this paper uses spatial econometric method to calculate the provincial economic growth drag under the constraints of carbon emissions and land resources, and discusses the direct and indirect growth drag from the perspective of spatial spillover. The results show that there is obvious spatial correlation in the process of provincial economic growth in China. Due to the limitation of resources, the spatial difference of economic growth tends to expand. Capital, carbon emissions, land and labor input has made spatial spillovers of economic growth, and indirectly affected the economic growth of neighboring regions. It is estimated that China's economic growth drag value is 0.0584 under the constraints of carbon emissions and land resources. The economic explanation is that the growth rate of China’s economy is expected to decrease by 5.84 percentage points annually, due to the constraints of carbon emissions and land resources.