基于时序分析的桥梁健康监测数据预测研究

Study on the Data Prediction of Bridge Health Monitoring Based on Time Series Analysis

为了发现桥梁在使用过程中所存在的隐患并且把桥梁运营结构状态预测得更加精准,确保桥梁结构使用的安全性能,以沈阳环城高速公路某立交桥梁健康监测作为依托的背景,根据现场大量的位移、应变实时监测的桥梁数据,利用ARMA时间序列预测模型的分析方法,建立预测函数表达式。分析结果显示,修正后的预测函数表达式给出的预测值与传感器采集的真实值比较,误差小、预测结果准确,结果符合预期要求。

In order to discover the hidden dangers of the bridge in use and to make the prediction of the state of the bridge operation structure more accurate,the safety performance of the bridge structure is ensured.Based on the background of the health monitoring of an interchange bridge in Shenyang Ring Expressway,this paper uses the ARMA time series prediction model analysis method to establish the prediction function expression based on the bridge data of real-time monitoring of displacement and strain.The analysis results show that the predicted value obtained by the modified prediction function expression is smaller than the true value collected by the sensor,and the prediction result is accurate,and the result meets the expected requirements.