环境规制的就业效应研究

Empirical Study on the Employment Effect of Environmental Regulation

基于我国1998-2016年的时间序列数据,就环境规制对就业的规模效应与要素替代效应进行理论和实证分析。研究结果发现:环境规制与就业的关系并不是简单的线性关系,而是呈U型曲线关系。在实施环境规制的初期,企业倾向于减少劳动力需求,此时,环境规制与就业的关系处在U型曲线的拐点左侧;而当环境规制实施强度提高到一定程度时,由于环保科技的创新会促进环保产业的发展,进而催生大量的劳动力需求,此时,环境规制与就业的关系处在U型曲线的拐点右侧。因此,为了促进经济的可持续发展,建议在经济发展的初级阶段,优化产业结构,降低环境规制强度;而在经济发展到一定程度时,则建议加强环境规制,鼓励科技创新。

Based on the time series data of industrial industry from 1998-2016, the paper makes theoretical and empirical analysis on the scale effect and factor substitution effect of environmental regulation on employment. The research results show that the environmental regulation and employment is not a simple linear relationship, but a U-shaped curve one. At the beginning of environmental regulation, enterprises tend to reduce labor demand. At this point, the relationship between environmental regulation and employment is reflected on the left of the inflection point of the U-shaped curve. When the intensity of environmental regulation is increased to a certain extent, the innovation of environmental protection technology will promote the development of environmental protection industry and increase a large number of labor demand. At this point, the relationship between environmental regulation and employment is reflected on the right side of the inflection point of the U-shaped curve. Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of the economy, optimizing industrial structure and reducing the intensity environmental regulation are suggested at the initial stage of economic development, while the economics develops to a certain level,environmental regulation should be strengthened and science& technology be encouraged.