一种优化页岩气产量预测模型的研究

Study on a Model for Optimizing Shale Gas Production

页岩气井在进行大规模水力压裂后产量会从生产初期的很高水平快速滑落到一个较低水平并长期维持,由于页岩气井的这一产量特点与其他油气井有较为明显的区别,因此给基于产量预测的产能评价和产量递减水平的预测带来较大的难度。文中提出一种优化页岩气产量的预测模型,该模型在对Arps模型、SEPD模型以及Duong模型等预测的模型深入研究的基础上,通过SEPD模型和Arps模型的组合使用,摒弃了两个模型各自缺陷,提高了模型在页岩气各个生产阶段的产量预测的准确度。通过实例计算表明,该优化模型能较大幅度地提升页岩气产量的预测准确度,其产量预测误差仅为4%。

In the large-scale hydraulic fracturing of shale gas production will be from a very high level of the early production quickly slipped to a low level and maintained for a long time,due to the production characteristics of shale gas and other oil and gas wells have obvious differences,therefore to predict the level of productivity evaluation and prediction of yield decreasing yield based on the great the difficulty.A prediction model of shale gas production optimization model is proposed in this paper,based on the model research of the Arps model,SEPD model and Duong model prediction,through the combination of SEPD model and Arps model,to abandon the two models with their respective defects,improve the prediction model of yield in different stages of the production of shale gas the accuracy of the.By using an example to calculate the surface,the optimized model can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of shale gas production,and the prediction error is only 4%.