城镇化进程中人口结构对碳排放的影响分析——以江苏省为例

An Analysis of the Impact on Population Structure to Carbon Emissions in Urbanization——Take Jiangsu Province as an Example

通过将人口结构细化为多个指标作为变量,结合江苏省历年数据,利用时间序列VAR模型考察现阶段人口结构各变量对江苏省碳排放的影响程度,结果显示:在江苏省的碳排放总量中,年龄结构、性别结构、家庭结构、教育结构和城乡结构对碳排放存在不同程度的影响,并呈现出长期均衡的态势。其中,年龄结构中,碳排放随着老龄人口数量的增加呈U型变化;城乡结构中,碳排放随着城镇人口数量的增加呈倒U型变化趋势;教育结构中,较高学历人口在未来对碳排放有显著的抑制效果;家庭结构在短期对碳排放有较强抑制作用,但长期抑制效果逐渐减弱;性别结构与碳排放之间的关系并不显著。最后,为江苏省未来的人口政策和绿色低碳经济提供政策建议。

This research uses the time series VAR model to examine the impact of population structure variables to the carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province by dividing the population structure into multiple variables,combined with the historical data of Jiangsu Province.The results show that among the total emissions,age structure,gender structure,family structure,education structure,and urban-rural structure have different degrees of impact on carbon emissions,and show a long-term equilibrium.The aging population in the age structure is in a U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions;the urban population in the urban-rural structure(urbanization level) is inverse U-shaped in relation to carbon emissions;the education structure has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the long term;In the short term,the family structure has a strong inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,but this effect will be gradually weakened in the long term;the impact of gender structure on carbon emissions is not significant.Finally,based on the conclusions,this research provides policy recommendations for the future development of the population policy and the development of a green,low-carbon economy in Jiangsu Province.