努力程度、独立性与分析师盈余预测准确度研究

Analysts' Independence, Forecast Effort and Earnings Forecast Accuracy

选取2008—2015年沪深两市A股上市公司分析师预测数据,研究分析师努力程度与盈余预测准确度之间的关系。结果表明,分析师努力程度与其盈余预测准确度显著正相关,相对于独立性较差的分析师而言,独立性较强的分析师努力程度对盈余预测准确度的正向影响更强。在控制分析师样本自选择问题后,结果依然稳健;分析师独立性与努力程度存在正交互效应,独立性越强的分析师越倾向于努力追求盈余预测准确度。

Using analysts’forecast data of A-share listed companies on both Shanghai and Shenzhen market from 2008 to 2015 as study samples, the relationship between forecast effort and earnings forecast accuracy is investigated. The regression results show us analysts’forecast effort positively correlates with earnings forecast accuracy. The above relationship would be apparently higher when analysts are independent than those who lose independence. The empirical results are still significant after taking analysts’self-selection issue into consideration. The results indicate that there is a positive interaction between analysts’independence and forecast effort. The more independence the analysts have, the more forecast effort will be devoted to pursuing the forecast accuracy.