全球价值链视角下人民币汇率与出口弱相关表象解析

Analysis of Weak Correlation of RMB Exchange Rate and Export in the Perspective of Global Value Chain

以我国的双边贸易作为研究对象,检验了人民币汇率与我国出口弱相关表象下的全球价值链因素以及在不同贸易对象分类中的异质性。研究认为,全球价值链对汇率弹性的影响不仅有后向的对冲效应,还存在前向的竞争效应,人民币汇率弹性弱化的主要原因在于前向竞争效应的加强。比较来看,我国对中低收入国家出口中的后向效应相对较强,对高收入国家(地区)出口中的前向效应相对较强。无论是对哪类国家(地区)出口,增加值出口的汇率弹性普遍高于总出口的汇率弹性。生产的全球化趋势有利于国际贸易的稳定发展,但也削弱了汇率变动对贸易的影响。货币、贸易等政策的制定需要考虑全球价值链因素,以本国增加值汇率弹性来评估汇率变动后的贸易效应。

Taking bilateral trade of China as the research object, this study examines the reason of global value chains for the weak correlation between RMB exchange rate and China’s exports and the heterogeneity in different trading objects. It concludes that global value chains influence exchange rate elasticity not only by backward hedging effect, but also by forward competitive effect. The reason for weakening RMB exchange rate elasticity lies in the increasing of forward competitive effect. By comparison, the backward effect of China’s exports to low and middleincome countries is relatively strong, while the forward effect of China’s exports to high-income countries is relatively strong. The exchange rate elasticity of value-added exports is generally higher than that of total exports regardless of the type of country (region) exports. Globalization of production is conducive to the stable development of international trade, but weakens the impact of exchange rate changes on trade. Therefore, the global value chain factors, and assessment of the trade effect of exchange rate changes based on the elasticity of domestic added value should be taken into account in making monetary, trade and other policies.