1985—2012年山东霜冻低温灾害与粮食生产格局时空研究

Temporal and Spatial Research on Frost and Low Temperature Disasters and Grain Production Pattern in Shandong Province from 1985 to 2012

通过对1985—2012年山东粮食总产量、粮食总播种面积、粮食成灾和受灾面积、霜冻害成灾和受灾面积、发生灾害状况等农业气象灾害资料的收集整理,应用历史文献以及数理统计法对这一时期山东低温霜冻灾害发生的等级、空间分布特征以及对粮食生产格局的时空影响进行分析。结果表明,1985—2012年山东粮食总产量在时间序列演变中呈现下降-上升-下降-上升的波动,粮食播种面积出现下降-上升-下降-上升的动态变化,空间格局变化中粮食总产量及粮食高产区中心有所转移,由鲁中南转向鲁东北、鲁西地区。1985—2012年山东粮食总成灾率、受灾率总体上呈逐年递减的变化趋势,但是霜冻低温灾害的成灾率、受灾率一直在递增,出现了4个高峰期,整体呈"M"变化。1985—2012年山东霜冻低温灾害受灾程度总体上与粮食生产类型区的空间分布大体一致,主要受地形影响,中重度霜冻低温灾害主要分布在鲁中、东北部等鲁中南山地丘陵区与鲁东波状丘陵区,轻度灾害主要分布在鲁西北、鲁西南平原区。

Through collecting and sorting out the data of total grain output,total grain planting area,grain disaster area,frost disaster area and disaster situation in Shandong Province from 1985 to 2012,the grade,spatial distribution characteristics of low temperature frost disaster and its temporal and spatial impact on grain production pattern in Shandong Province were analyzed by using historical documents and mathematical statistics.The results showed that the total grain output of Shandong Province showed a fluctuation of decline-rise-decline-rise in the time series evolution from 1985 to 2012,and the grain sowing area showed a dynamic change of decline-rise-decline-rise.The total grain output and the center of high-yield area had been shifted from central and southern Shandong to northeastern Shandong and western Shandong.From 1985 to 2012,the grain disaster rate showed a decreasing trend year by year,but the disaster rate of frost and low temperature disasters had been increasing,with four peak periods appearing,and the overall change was"M".From 1985 to 2012,the disaster degree of frost and low temperature disasters in Shandong Province was generally consistent with the spatial distribution of grain production areas,mainly affected by topography.The moderate and severe frost and low temperature disasters were mainly distributed in the hilly areas of central and southern Shandong and the undulated hilly areas of eastern Shandong,and the mild disasters were mainly distributed in the plains of northwest Shandong and southwestern Shandong.