泸州市农业碳收支时空变化及公平性评价

Spatio-Temporal Change in Agricultural Carbon Production Budget and Evaluation of Agricultural Carbon Emission Equity in Luzhou City

根据泸州市空间面板数据,分别采用参数估算法及IPCC清单估算法估算该市2006—2015年农业生产碳收支状况,并用生态承载系数及经济效率系数进行区域农业碳排放公平性评价。结果表明:(1)2006—2015年该市农业碳吸收量由166. 47×10~7kg增长到188. 38×10~7kg,水稻碳吸收占比最大。农业碳吸收强度由2006年的8×10~3kg·hm^(-2)上升到2015年的8. 96×10~3kg·hm^(-2),其中龙马潭区叙永县明显减弱,而泸县和合江县显著增强。(2)研究期该市农业碳排放量由144. 02×10~7kg减少到127. 71×10~7kg,其中牲畜养殖是最大排放源。农业碳排放强度由2006年的6. 92×10~3kg·hm^(-2)下降到2015年的6. 07×10~3kg·hm^(-2),其中龙马潭区、纳溪区、叙永县和古蔺县明显减弱,而泸县显著增强。(3)农业碳排放生态承载力从大到小依次为江阳>龙马潭>泸县>合江>纳溪>古蔺>叙永;农业经济效率从大到小依次为龙马潭>江阳>泸县>合江>纳溪>古蔺>叙永。(4)农业碳排放公平性聚类分析结果显示,该市北部平原地区在一定程度上分担了其他地区的农业碳减排压力,南部山区农业碳排放则加重了该市农业碳减排压力。

Based on spatial data of Luzhou City,the parameter estimation and IPCC inventory estimation methods were used to estimate the carbon budget of agricultural production in the city from 2006 to 2015. The equity of regional agricul? tural carbon emissions has been evaluated using the ecological carrying and economic efficiency coefficients. The results show that:(1)Within the ten years,the city′s agricultural carbon absorption had increased from 166. 47 × 10^7 kg to 188. 38×10^7 kg,while rice had the largest share of carbon sequestration. The carbon absorption intensity from agriculture rose from 8×10^3 kg·hm^-2 in 2006 to 8. 96×10^3 kg·hm^-2 in 2015. Among the areas in Luzhou City,carbon absorption inten? sity was significantly weakened in Longmatan and Xuyong,while that from Luxian and Hejiang increased significantly.(2)During the study period,the city′s carbon emissions from agriculture reduced from 144. 02×10^7 kg to 127. 71×10^7 kg,of which livestock breeding was the largest source of emissions. The carbon intensity of agriculture fell from 6. 92×10^3 kg·hm^-2 in 2006 to 6. 07×103 kg·hm^-2 in 2015,with intensities from Longmatan,Naxi,Xuyong,and Gulin weakening significantly,while the intensity from Luxian significantly increased.(3)The ecological carrying capacity of agricultural carbon emissions was the largest in Jiangyang,followed by Longmatan,Luxian,Hejiang,Naxi,Gulin and Xuyong. Agricultural production efficiency ranked as following:Longmatan>Jiangyang>Luxian>Hejiang>Naxi>Gulin>Xuyong.(4)A cluster analysis of agricultural carbon emission equity shows that the northern plains to certain extent shared the pressure of other areas of the city on reducing agricultural carbon emission. But the carbon emissions from agricultural production in the southern mountainous areas of the city increased the pressure on the city for the reduction of agricultural carbon emission.