基于灰色系统的房价分析与预测模型

On Analysis and Prediction of the House Price Basing on the Grey Model

北上广的房价目前是大众比较关注的问题。通过选取广州市的房价作为例子,基于国家统计局2009-2016年的房价数据,利用灰色预测模型进行分析和预测。所建模型的方差比为0.534,最小误差率为1,用此模型预测了广州市未来5年的年均房价,与2016年的房价相比,预测值与实际值相差650元。得知未来5年广州市房价的增长趋势是趋于平缓的。

The price of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou is currently a concern of the public. Based on the house price data of the National Bureau of Statistics from 2009 to 2016, the gray forecasting model is used for analysis and forecasting of the housing prices in Guangzhou.The model has a variance ratio of 0.534 and a minimum error rate of 1. This model is used to predict the average annual house prices in Guangzhou in the next five years. Compared with the 2016 house price, the predicted value differs from the actual value by 650 yuan. It is known that the growth trend of Guangzhou's housing prices in the next five years is gradual.