中美竞争与“一带一路”阶段属性和目标

Phased Aims and Characters of BRI in Context of Competition Between China and United States

当前中国仍处在经济崛起的起步阶段,对美国主导的经济体系存在脆弱性依赖,并遭遇美国的预防性打压,双边关系中出现零和博弈占据主导的竞争走势。在这一阶段,中美结构性矛盾尚未体现在领导权的竞争上,中国的主要困境是面临美国设置的、旨在预防性地破坏中国物质实力积累的"经济压力陷阱"。因此中国在选择应对策略时,首先要避免误判形势,不能寄希望于继续在美国主导的体系内实现经济崛起,需要具备与美国主导的国际经济体系"脱钩"的底线思维和必要准备;其次要警惕在美国的压力下,以阻碍甚至逆转自身经济崛起进程为代价去化解中美之间的结构性矛盾和冲突;最后还要避免过早追求建立平行的替代性体系,将中美竞争完全推向零和博弈。因此,现阶段的"一带一路"应该主要是立足中国国内的长期发展倡议,目标是服务于维持中国经济崛起所需的外部条件,降低对美国主导的经济体系的脆弱性依赖,在周边打造更加自主和健康的地区经济结构,为中国的持续增长提供对冲方案。"一带一路"在现阶段不应谋求替代既有经济秩序、建立与之分庭抗礼的平行体系,而应立足于未雨绸缪,对冲"脱钩"美国主导的国际经济体系的潜在风险。"一带一路"建设的资源投放应围绕这一长期发展目标有方向、有重点、有限度地推进。

The paper examines the nature of BRI and the relationship between its economic aims and strategic goals in the current phase based on the analysis of the relationship between rising China and the international system dominated by the U.S.,including the trend of this relationship.By assessing the limits and development points of BRI as well as the paradigms,models,contents,area extensions and implementation methods,it argues that currently China has still in the initial stage of economic rising,and its vulnerabilities include its dependence on world economy order dominated by the U.S.and the challenges brought by the U.S.constant preventive pressure.Due to those factors,the bilateral relations between China and US and its tendency are exhibiting zero-sum game characteristics.The essay points out that currently competition between China and the U.S.does not focus on the struggling on world leadership.The present critical danger of China is how to avoid the trap of economic pressure built by the U.S.preventive constraint measures which aim at slowing down or even sabotaging the comprehensive strength accumulation of China.China needs to refrain from the miscalculation that China development still relies on the U.S.support and its support would last.China needs more self-confidence on its independent development and at least needs to prepare for the decoupling between China and US.Meanwhile,China also needs to notice the misleading trend of sacrificing China's own development chances and even crucial interests to defuse the structural confrontation between these two world giants.Last but not least,China also need to resist the temptation to try to formulate its own parallel regional cooperation system,providing an alternative plan of world order dominated by the United States,for such ambition would inevitably make the bilateral relations completely trapped in a zero-sum game.Based on these assessments,the paper concludes that currently BRI should keep its nature as a long term development initiative and serve the aim of maintaining external environment required by China's economy development.China should reduce its dependence on the U.S.world economy order and focus on building its independent and sound regional cooperation structure so as to find an alternative plan for China's sustained economic growth.China should reduce constant relying on the U.S.dominant system and meanwhile resist the ambition to topple down current world economy order.BRI should concentrate more on this long-term development approach by phased,directed and sufficient resources investment.