中美军事关系:从准同盟到竞争对手?

China-U.S. Military Relations: From Quasi-Alliance to Competiton?

40年前,地缘战略考虑和军事需求曾经是中美恢复外交关系的重要考量。建交后,两国优先发展各项军事合作,包括高层互访、专业对口交流和军事技术合作。20世纪80年代末和90年代初,中国国内的政治风波和两极国际格局的终结,导致两国关系下滑。其后,两军关系时走时停,始终缺少实质性内容。中美军事利益的冲突集中反映在台湾问题、美国主导的军事同盟针对中国的举措、双方军事力量态势的互动,以及新兴技术发展中的军事竞争。但是,中美在应对非传统安全威胁方面有越来越多的共同利益,在地区和全球多边机制中有不断增加的合作。未来发展中美军事关系,应注意以管理分歧和防止危机为主线保持双边关系稳定,以推动共同利益为主轴进行多边机制中的合作,以增信释疑为出发点缓解中国与美国主导的军事同盟之间的对立。特别是在当前中美关系趋冷之际,发展军事关系的首要任务,是强化危机管控机制,防止最坏情况的发生。

Forty years ago,based primarily on geostrategic calculations and military necessity,China and the U.S.established diplomatic relations.In the early years after the rapprochement,military cooperation,including high-level visits,extensive exchanges in all fields,and joint defense technology projects was among the top priorities.In the late 1980s and early 1990s,domestic political turmoil,combined with the end of the bipolar international system led to a sharp downward spiral of the China-U.S.relationship.The military ties suffered from frequent suspensions and lack of substance.Both sides were at odds on a number of issues:Taiwan,U.S.-led military alliances and their containing moves against China,the interactive posture in military power balances,and the military competition in emerging technologies.However,China and the U.S.increasingly share interests in coping with non-traditional security threats and cooperating in multilateral regional and global frameworks.To keep their military relations stable,the two countries need to focus on managing differences and preventing crises,promoting common interest by cooperating in multilateral mechanisms,and reducing antagonism between China and the U.S.-led Asia-Pacific alliances.At the present time when relations are worsening,high priority should be given to enhancing“crises-control”regimes and preventing worst-case scenarios.