国际秩序互动视角下的中美关系

The China-U.S. Interactions on International Order

2018年,美国国会接连通过涉台法案,特朗普政府则对华发动了全面贸易战,中美关系越过"临界点"的说法已经从不确定的判断转变为严峻的政治现实。这一发展并非是因偶然因素的叠加突破了中美关系的"正常周期",而是两国在国际政治、安全和经济秩序领域的消极互动不断累积的结果。表面上,经贸相互依赖是中美关系的"压舱石",能稳定地改善因政治、安全摩擦而不时恶化的中美双边关系。由于中美在国际经济秩序上接近的停滞和距离的拉大,这一相互依赖正随着中国经济体量的增加而由互补转变为竞争,这一质变甚至还在不断加速。因此,关系正常化特别是1989年以来的中美关系在本质上可能并不存在周期性,两国在各秩序领域的消极互动大体上在不断累加,最终越过了"非敌非友"的临界点。由于经贸关系这一"压舱石"本身已经部分质变,要想重新恢复关系的总体平衡,不仅需要缓解中美两国在国际经济秩序上的分歧,或许还需要通过在政治和安全领域的措施来"反哺"不断激化的经贸矛盾。

In 2018,the U.S.Congress passed Taiwan bills consecutively and the Trump administration triggered a total trade war toward China.Therefore,the“tipping point”theory of Sino-U.S.relations became a reality rather than a mere presumption.This new reality originates from accumulated negative interaction on international security and economic and political issues,but it is not an accidental breakthrough of the“normal cycle.”In the future,as the economic ballast itself has collapsed,in order to restore the overall balance,China and the United States should not only narrow the divergence in international economic issues,but also improve the political and security co-operation to compensate the much trickier bilateral economic relations.