冷战后美国政府对朝鲜的战略思维探究

On U.S. Strategic Thinking on DPRK since the End of Cold War

冷战结束以来,美国对朝鲜的政策一直在"接触对话"与"孤立施压"之间游走。一方面,美国对朝鲜施以强有力的经济制裁、外交孤立以及军事威慑,甚至以军事打击相威胁;另一方面,待朝鲜承受不住压力的时候,再与朝鲜进行接触,迫使其弃核。美国对朝政策鲜明地反映出美国对"敌对国家"的战略思维特征。然而,这种战略思维却导致了其政策的不连贯性,不但无法迫使朝鲜就范,反而增加了朝鲜半岛的紧张局势,进一步刺激朝鲜加强核武和导弹能力,使朝鲜半岛无核化进程蹒跚不前。

Since the end of the Cold War,U.S.policy towards DPRK has vacillated between pressures and engagement.It utilizes a wider toolkit of diplomatic,political,military,cyber,commercial,economic and financial penalties to pressure DPRK to abandon its nuclear and missile programs.The U.S.will not open any direct,substantive engagement until DPRK returns to the table under pressure.This policy reflects U.S.strategic thinking on DPRK,which has led to inconsistent policies during successive U.S.administrations.Although all options,including the military one,are on the table,it stimulates DPRK to keep developing its nuclear and missile programs,making the Korean Peninsula a hot pot.