预期寿命延长与中国城镇居民的高储蓄率——来自地级市城镇家庭的证据

The Impact of Expanding Life Expectancy on Savings Rate: Evidence from Urban Households

文章首先从生命周期的角度解释预期寿命延长会提高城镇居民的家庭储蓄率:预期寿命的延长意味着退休后存活的时间更长,从而工作期间需要更多地储蓄以应对退休后更长时间内的收入下降;但这一机制不适合解释农户的储蓄行为,这是因为农民不存在退休和退休后收入的急剧下降。文章基于中国城镇部门的数据进行检验后发现:(1)基于2005～2013年地级市面板数据的实证研究显示,预期寿命延长1年会使城镇居民的家庭储蓄率提高3.7%;(2)基于2005～2012年国家统计局城镇家庭调查数据的实证研究显示,如果退休后的预期存活时间长于剩余工作时间,城镇居民的家庭储蓄率更高,从另一个侧面反映预期寿命对城镇居民家庭储蓄率的影响。文章基于宏观和微观数据检验了预期寿命延长对中国城镇居民高储蓄率的影响,有助于理解储蓄率的走向和影响因素,为评估延迟退休政策对家庭储蓄率的影响奠定实证基础。

Based on the life cycle theory,longer life expectancy usually results in higher savings rate for urban households,because they should save more to smooth the sharply decreased income for the extended life span after retirement.However,this does not apply to rural households in China because peasants do not retire and their income will not experience sharp decrease.Based on the panel data of urban households from 2005 to 2012,this paper finds that(1)the average household savings rate increases by 3.7 percent for a one-year increase in life expectancy,and(2)if expected life expectancy upon retirement is longer than the remaining working time,urban household savings rate is higher.Based on macro-and micro-data,this paper examines the effects of longer life expectancy on household savings rate,which helps to understand the trend of savings rate and its determinants,and to provide empirical foundation for pension policy reforms.