中国服务业增长与鲍莫尔-富克斯假说的再检验——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

The Growth of China's Service Industry and the Re-examination of Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis——An empirical study based on provincial panel data

服务业增长是规律还是幻觉长期以来争议较大,主要质疑包括统计技术的进步、市场范围扩大以及鲍莫尔-富克斯假说。随着基础统计工作与统计调查制度的完善,关于统计技术进步、市场范围扩大对服务业增长的影响实际已越来越弱化,"服务业增长之谜"的主要争论都围绕鲍莫尔-富克斯假说展开。以中国省际面板数据,利用索罗余值法,测算中国三次产业的劳动生产率增长率与全要素生产率增长率,结果表明,中国服务业劳动生产率增长率要高于工业劳动生产率增长率,服务业"成本病"正在缓解或痊愈,服务业增长是真实的。随着网络信息技术的发展,服务的基本特征与派生属性发生改变,尤其服务业能将人力资本、信息、知识等报酬递增要素引入经济增长的飞轮,服务业逐渐成为经济高质量发展的新动力。

Whether the growth of service industry is a law or a hallucination has long been controversial, mainly questions include the progress of statistical technology, the expansion of the market scope and the Baumol Fuchs Hypothesis. With the improvement of the basic statistical work and the statistical investigation system, the effect of the progress of statistical technology and the expansion of the market on the growth of service industry has become more and more weak. The main arguments about the “mystery of service industry growth” are all around the Baumol Fuchs Hypothesis. Based on the provincial panel data, this paper uses the Solo Surplus Method to measure the productivity growth rate and the total factor productivity growth rate of the three industries in China. The results show that the growth rate of labor productivity in China's service industry is higher than the growth rate of industrial labor productivity, and the “Cost Disease” in service industry is relieving or recovering. Service industry growth is real, With the development of network information technology, the basic features and derived attributes of services have changed. Especially, the service industry can introduce the increasing factors of human capital, information and knowledge into the flywheel of economic growth. Service industry has gradually become a new driving force for the development of high quality economy.