乌克兰危机以来的俄美关系困境再思考

Reconsideration on Russia-US Relations Dilemma Since Ukrainian Crisis

在乌克兰危机形成、发展、演变的过程中,俄罗斯与美国之间进行了激烈博弈。后乌克兰危机时期俄美关系仍未得到缓和,俄美的关系出现了冷战结束以来前所未有的困境。俄美在乌克兰问题上的高度对立,既是双方实力格局演化的过程,也是价值认同对立、战略互信缺失、国内权力结构制约等多重因素共同促成的结果。俄美坚守各自的战略底线,均拒绝作出让步,但实际的战略收益对各自却不尽理想。本文参照与乌克兰问题相关的中外文献,围绕乌克兰问题,结合其间的重要事件,以及其他重要内外部因素,以俄美之间自2014年至今的关系困境为研究视角,梳理其形成机制和演变过程,归纳俄美关系困境的主要成因;最后在此基础上对俄美关系的未来走势提出几点粗浅的判断,对理解和把握冷战后俄美关系的实质及其发展趋势提供参考。

In the process of the formation,development and evolution of the Ukrainian crisis,there has been a fierce game between Russia and the United States.Russia-US relations,however,have not yet been eased during the post-Ukrainian crisis,instead,the relationship between Russia and the United States has experienced an unprecedented dilemma since the end of the Cold War.The high opposition between Russia and the United States on the Ukrainian issue is not only the process of evolution of strength of the two sides,but also the consequence of multiple factors such as the opposition of value identity,the lack of mutual strategic trust,and the restriction of domestic power structure.Since both Russia and the United States choose to adhere to their respective strategic bottom lines and refuse to make concessions,the actual strategic benefits are not ideal for the two countries.Based on the Chinese and foreign literature related to the Ukrainian issue,this paper focuses on the Ukrainian issue,combining with important events and other important internal and external factors,and also analyzes the formation mechanism and evolution process from the perspective of the relationship between Russia and the United States from 2014 to the present,summing up the main causes of the plight of Russia-US relations.On this basis,the author tries to put forward some superficial judgments on the future trend of Russia-US relations in order to provide some reference for understanding and grasping the essence and development trend of Russia-US relations of post-Cold War period.