中国城镇居民的房地产税纳税意愿——基于不同减免方案的模拟分析

Urban Residents' Willingness to Pay Property Tax in China: A Simulation Analysis under Different Exemption Schemes

论文在房地产税纳税意愿理论模型的基础上,建构纳税意愿的测量指标,再使用《中国家庭追踪调查》的数据,根据区域、住房类型、拥有套数、购房贷款和社会经济地位等因素,对不同地区和收入的居民的房地产税纳税意愿进行多维度比较,发现:一、不同地区和收入的家庭的房地产税纳税意愿存在较大差异,说明房地产税的地方税特征和差异化设计的必要性。二、在不同减免方案下,房地产税的财政效应明显不同。三、没有证据表明减免额度越大纳税意愿越高。研究结果表明,简单地提高减免额未必能减少开征房地产税的阻力。论文认为:以人均价值减免为基础,综合考量房地产税的税收潜能和居民纳税意愿,理论上的最优减免额度不宜超过当地人均三分之一建筑面积的当年市场价值。

Based on the theoretical model of willingness to pay property tax( WTP),this paper constructs four different indicators to measure tax willingness. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies( CFPS), this study compared the willingness of residents to pay property tax in different regions and with different income levels,capturing such factors as region,housing type,number of homes owned,home purchase loan,and social economic status. There were three findings. First,different regions and families have large differences in willingness to pay a property tax,highlighting the local characteristics of property tax and the necessity of differential designs. Second,under different exemption schemes,the fiscal effects of property tax were different. Third,there was no theoretical or empirical support for a higher exemptionamount. Over-generous exemptions do not necessarily generate a higher willingness to pay the tax.Based on the per person value exemption scheme,with a comprehensive consideration of the fiscal capacity of local property tax and the residents’ WTP,the market value of one-third of per capita floor space in each locality,stands out as the most appropriate. In the context of currently high housing prices,tax rates can be appropriately increased and should be gradually reduced through gradual reforms.