基于信度理论的林木资源资产评估收益法研究

Research on Forest Resource Assets Appraisal Income Approach Based on Credibility Theory

在当前林业经营体制改革不断深入与林木资源资产交易日益频繁的背景下,对于林木资源资产价值的准确评估具有重要的意义。作为评估林木资产的基本方法,收益法在实际运用中存在预期收益额测算主观性强和采用固定折现率两大缺陷,导致其评估结果不够准确。引入信度理论,通过在先验信息与经验数据的基础上合理估计、预测后验信息,重新修正了林木资源评估收益法中的收益额与折现率,从而使收益法在林木资源资产价值的评估运用中更为精准。

Under the background of the continuous deepening of forestry management system reform and the increasingly frequent trading of forest resources assets, the accurate assessment of the value of forest resource assets is of importance. As the basic method of forest assets evaluation, Income Approach adopts a fixed discount rate in actual application, and the calculation of the expected amount of income is highly subjective, which leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation results. This article introduces the Credibility Theory, based on the prior information and empirical data, the posterior information is reasonably estimated and predicted. This article revised the return and discount rate in the Income Approach of forest resource assessment. Therefore, the Income Approach will be more accurate in the evaluation of the value of forest resource assets.