摘要
Engineering designs for mountainous highways emphasize compliance checking to ensure safety. However, relying solely on compliance checking may lead designers to minimize costs at the expense of high risk indicators, since the overall risk level of the highway design is unknown to the designers. This paper describes a method for the simultaneous consideration of traffic safety risks and the associated cost burden related to the appropriate planning and design of a mountainous highway. The method can be carried out in four steps: First, the highway design is represented by a new parametric framework to extract the key design variables that affect not only the life-cycle cost but also the operational safety. Second, the relationship between the life-cycle cost and the operational safety risk factors is established in the cost-estimation functions. Third, a fault tree analysis (FTA) is introduced to identify the traffic risk factors from the design variables. The safety performance of the design solutions is also assessed by the generalized linear-regression model. Fourth, a theory of acceptable risk analysis is introduced to the traffic safety assessment, and a computing algorithm is proposed to solve for a cost-efficient optimal solution within the range of acceptable risk, in order to help decision-makers. This approach was applied and examined in the Sichuan–Tibet Highway engineering project, which is located in a complex area with a large elevation gradient and a wide range of mountains. The experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly improved both the safety and cost performance of the project in the study area.
Engineering designs for mountainous highways emphasize compliance checking to ensure safety.However, relying solely on compliance checking may lead designers to minimize costs at the expense of high risk indicators, since the overall risk level of the highway design is unknown to the designers.This paper describes a method for the simultaneous consideration of traffic safety risks and the associated cost burden related to the appropriate planning and design of a mountainous highway. The method can be carried out in four steps: First, the highway design is represented by a new parametric framework to extract the key design variables that affect not only the life-cycle cost but also the operational safety.Second, the relationship between the life-cycle cost and the operational safety risk factors is established in the cost-estimation functions. Third, a fault tree analysis(FTA) is introduced to identify the traffic risk factors from the design variables. The safety performance of the design solutions is also assessed by the generalized linear-regression model. Fourth, a theory of acceptable risk analysis is introduced to the traffic safety assessment, and a computing algorithm is proposed to solve for a cost-efficient optimal solution within the range of acceptable risk, in order to help decision-makers. This approach was applied and examined in the Sichuan–Tibet Highway engineering project, which is located in a complex area with a large elevation gradient and a wide range of mountains. The experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly improved both the safety and cost performance of the project in the study area.
基金
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71732001, 51878311, and 51678265)
the Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (2017-XZ-12).
